- A new strategic monitoring tool promoted by civil society organizations evaluates, through four pillars, fifteen indicators, and ten recommendations, whether official announcements made between January and mid-June 2026 constitute real changes or merely cosmetic gestures.
- The analysis following the application of the tool warns that, despite mass releases from prison and official announcements of reforms, the country is not undergoing a democratic transition, as impunity, restrictive laws, a security apparatus lacking fundamental reforms, and absence of cooperation and openness toward international mechanisms persist.
With the aim of rigorously measuring, using technical and documented evidence, the gap between government announcements and the country’s structural reality, the Justice and Truth platform, in conjunction with various Venezuelan and international civil society organizations, presents a monitoring tool called the Thermometer of Justice, Truth, and the Rule of Law, developed in the wake of the political events that unfolded on January 3, 2026. Its primary purpose is to systematically document, analyze, and report on progress, setbacks, or stagnation in the areas of justice, truth, reparations, and institutional reform.
The report draws on the documentation work of the organizations that constitute the Justice and Truth platform and other civil society groups, which for more than a decade have monitored the crimes and abuses committed by the State, closely supporting victims and activating the protection mechanisms of the Universal System, the Inter-American System, and the International Criminal Court (ICC), as well as on the findings of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission (FFM), the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and other international bodies.
The tool uses the concept of cumulative temperature to track changes over time and illustrate trends (progress, stagnation, or regression), indicating whether the country is moving toward the continuation of the repressive system (red) or toward the rule of law (blue).
The Situation in Venezuela: Genuine Transition or Cosmetic Change?
The Venezuelan political landscape changed on January 3, 2026, with the arrest of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. In the days that followed, after Delcy Rodríguez was appointed acting president, a series of announcements sparked—for the first time in years—a public debate on the country’s institutional future. These included: mass releases from prison, the announcement of the closure of El Helicoide, the Amnesty Law, new appointments to key government positions, and the launch of a judicial reform process, albeit without a clear agenda.
However, in some cases, these announcements have amounted to nothing more than mere gestures, while the structures responsible for serious human rights violations remain intact. During the period under review (from January to mid-June 2026), the interim government demonstrated a capacity for swift action and a legislative willingness to pass reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment and projecting a collaborative diplomatic approach with external actors. However, the analysis shows that this action has been highly selective: the repressive apparatus remains in place, laws criminalizing dissent remain in force, judicial institutions lack verifiable independence, and many victims continue to await justice and unconditional freedom.
Detailed Analysis of the Four Strategic Pillars
The report structures its assessment around four fundamental dimensions derived from an analysis of more than 180 recommendations issued by the FFM, the OHCHR, and the Universal Periodic Review (UPR).
These pillars aim to translate international recommendations into concrete areas of monitoring, follow-up, and the establishment of minimum conditions for justice, democratic openness, and guarantees of non-repetition in Venezuela.:
- Pillar 1 – End of Repression (Temperature: Yellow-Red / Partial and Insufficient Progress):
Have concrete, verifiable, and sustained measures been adopted to put an end to patterns of political repression?
Although mass releases from prison have been recorded since January, monitoring indicates that these were in response to external pressure rather than a sustained, autonomous commitment, with numerous restrictions and conditional releases remaining in place.
The Amnesty Law had structural flaws, as it was designed with exclusions, applied at the discretion of the very same courts that had carried out the repression, and unilaterally declared concluded under an approach based on clemency rather than the recognition of rights.
The security and intelligence apparatus remains intact. Signs such as the appointment of former officials linked to security agencies to key ministerial positions demonstrate an intention to consolidate power rather than pursue reform.
During this period, new arbitrary detentions and cases of deaths in custody were documented, evidencing the continuation of coercive patterns.
- Pillar 2 – Accountability and Institutional Reform (Status: Red / No Progress on Accountability):
The renewal and appointment processes within the Citizen’s Branch (Public Prosecutor’s Office and Ombudswoman’s Office) and the reform of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) repeated historical patterns of opacity and partisan co-optation. Legislative commissions were once again formed with minimal civilian representation, and the number of judges was reformed to ensure political control.
Impunity is not the result of administrative inertia, but rather of an active policy. The Mission has noted the complete absence of any indication that the authorities intend to investigate the crimes against humanity that have been committed.
- Pillar 3 – Protection of civic space and repeal of restrictive laws (Status: Red / No regulatory progress):
The legal framework established between 2000 and 2024 to criminalize dissent and stifle civil society—comprising at least 38 regulatory instruments, such as the Anti-Hate Law, the NGO Oversight Law (Anti-Association Law), the Simón Bolívar Law, and the Anti-Blockade Law—remains in force and unreformed.
The government’s decision not to amend these laws—despite demonstrating the capacity for rapid legislative action in other areas—confirms that this regulatory inaction is deliberate. Civil society organizations continue to operate and bear all the risks in a hostile environment, not because the laws offer guarantees of autonomy, but in spite of them.
- Pillar 4 – Multilateralism and Cooperation with International Mechanisms (Temperature: Yellow-Red / Exploratory Contacts without Full Cooperation):
Certain tangible advances are recognized that may translate into positive results on the diplomatic front, such as the presence of an exploratory mission from the OHCHR in Venezuelan territory as well as its subsequent reestablishment, albeit limited.
However, the overall picture remains restrictive: the IACHR has gone 24 years without visiting the territory. The Mission operates without direct access to the country, and OHCHR has not established an office with a full and public mandate. Several on-the-ground visits by United Nations Special Rapporteurs remain pending. The risk persists that the State will use the international presence instrumentally to legitimize its official narrative without opening effective channels for independent verification.
Timely and Necessary Demands
The Thermometer of Justice, Truth, and the Rule of Law concludes that the political cycle beginning in early 2026 represents a momentous historical opportunity, but warns that gestures of tactical openness and cosmetic reforms are no substitute for the structural changes necessary for this opportunity to evolve into a genuine transition. The Justice and Truth platform reiterates ten priority and indispensable demands:
- Fully and unconditionally release all political prisoners and cease arbitrary preventive measures.
- Formally acknowledge the state crimes documented by international mechanisms, abandoning official denialism.
- Identify, eradicate, and punish systemic violations and purge the security forces involved in abuses.
- Repeal and reform the restrictive regulatory framework governing civic and institutional space.
- Guarantee the independence of the justice system as an essential prerequisite for any institutional reform.
- Appoint an independent Comptroller General through strictly transparent and constitutional procedures.
- Sign a new memorandum of understanding with the OHCHR that guarantees a public, comprehensive mandate for effective protection.
- Actively cooperate with the International Criminal Court in the investigation of international crimes.
- Extend formal and open invitations to the IACHR, the FFM, and the UN Special Rapporteurs for field visits in 2026.
- Launch immediate, credible, and independent criminal investigations into the serious human rights violations committed since 2014, ensuring truth, justice, and full guarantees of non-repetition.
The organizations that constitute the Justice and Truth platform and that endorse this report reiterate that the difference between a genuine transition and a missed opportunity cannot be measured by announcements alone.
It is measured by concrete actions—such as whether victims obtain truth, justice, and guarantees of non-repetition; whether genuine mechanisms are established to achieve these objectives; and whether progress reflects structural changes rather than merely cosmetic ones, as has been the case thus far.
A transition requires more than just a change at the top; it requires the State to adopt verifiable measures to end human rights violations, ensure accountability, guarantee the truth for victims, and dismantle the structures that made systemic repression in Venezuela possible.